"IRA is no more", but Paisley still won't play ball

"The IRA has disbanded military structures, including General Headquarters departments responsible for procurement, engineering & training, and it has stood down volunteers and stopped allowances". So stated the IMC's, giving PIRA a clean bill of health, in its twelfth report released in Belfast on Wednesday 4th October.
It said that "the Provisional leadership has maintained a firm stance against the involvement of members in criminality, although that does not mean that criminal activity by all members has stopped. In the past six months there had been no IRA paramilitary activity, recruitment or training; no shootings, two beatings were carried out without leadership sanction and robberies had been committed 'for personal gain'". With regard to who killed IRA double agent Dennis Donaldson, they were not in a position to say, they said, but added that no vital intelligence about the murder was being withheld.

No one now disputes that the IRA's arms are off the table. Even the DUP, while typically cautious, welcomed the report. Blair  & Ahern, buoyed by the positive nature of the IMC report are preparing proposals to be presented to the parties at the talks in St Andrews next week detailing how an agreement might be achieved by their deadline of November 24th. The key issues are getting the DUP to agree to share power with Sinn Fein, persuading Sinn Fein to sign up to policing.

A glaring hypocrisy is that there is no mention of cessation of Loyalist paramilitarism before talks, even though the report outlines the continued nature of the dangerous activity of the Loyalists paramilitaries. Loyalist paramilitary groupings remain active in both violence & crime, the report said. The LVF was a "deeply criminal organisation". The UDA too was guilty of violent paramilitary activity. It blamed the UVF for two attempted murders in the six months since April and other shootings and assaults.

What prospects for DUP agreeing to November deadline for agreement?
In a hugely symbolic gesture, Paisley is to meet the Catholic primate, Archbishop Sean Brady, to discuss political matters at Stormont on Monday 9th October. While the Catholic church has been requesting a meeting with Paisley for some time, the DUP's scheduling of it just two days before the Scotland talks is aimed at sending a clear message to nationalists: It's not true we don't want a Catholic around the place.
Is the DUP ready to do a deal with Sinn Fein at this week's talks? Privately senior DUP figures accept the Provo war is over. But the DUP insists they will only enter government with Sinn Fein if Sinn Fein joins up to the PSNI.
Adams has already indicated that if there is agreement on devolution he will try to convince an ardfheis to support the PSNI. With dozens of resignations and the threat of more, the Sinn Fein leadership has faced tougher opposition over policing that over any other issue, including decommissioning. But the resignation of hardliners benefits the leadership in the long run. No one doubts Adams-McGuiness will win on the issue. As ex-IRA prisoner Anthony McIntyre says: In Long Kesh, we shouted defieantly:" Up the 'Ra! Jail Paisley!" Now the Sinn Fein slogan effectively is: "Up Paisley! Jail the 'Ra!"
Devolving policing and justice powers to Stormont will prove contentious at negotiations. Sinn Fein wants this to happen quickly. It would strengthen the leadership's hand in the internal policing debate. The DUP wants a considerable delay. Gerry Kelly as justice minister would be too much for its supporters to swallow quickly.

Conclusion
Whatever about the governments touting November 24th as an inflexible deadline for agreement to restore devolution, it's likely Paisley won't lead a powersharing Executive with Martin McGuiness by that date. And neither is it likely that Adams will persuade a Sinn Fein ard-fheis to support the PSNI by November 24th, as he is mandated to do under party rules before Sinn Fein join the Policing Board.  One scenario doing the rounds is that Paisley and Adams can be persuaded to make commitments on powersharing & policing by November 24th that would not come into effect until after that date, possibly even next year. But both Blair & Ahern are anxious about any pushing back of the November 24th deadline. Neither will be around indefinitely, neither wants to leave office with failure to restore devolution on his record.

In the event that the Assembly resumes, it remains one based on a sectarian head count with ultimate power residing in Westminster and the power to suspend it in the hands of the Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain. The IMC's report on Wednesday last shows that Adams & McGuinness have gone down the Collins road, further than Collins ever did. It is anti-unionists who are the losers, having to rely on the Northern `Ireland police security to defend them against a loyalism which is still armed to the teeth.

Sun 08, October 2006 @ 23:01