Permanent Revolution

bill j on Wed 03, February 2010 @ 09:12

bill j — 2010-02-03 09:12:23

At least someone reads these articles, Alex Callinicos in the latest SW says;

"All this should put in perspective the idiotic announcements that “the recession is over”. The Great Depression went through several stages and lasted ten years."

http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art.php?id=20176

He sites Reinhart and Rogoff,

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_This_Time_Is_Different.pdf

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_Aftermath.pdf

Who conclude;

"An examination of the aftermath of severe financial crises shows deep and lasting effects on asset prices, output and employment. Unemployment rises and housing price declines extend out for five and six years, respectively. On the encouraging side, output declines last only two years on average. Even recessions sparked by financial crises do eventually end, albeit almost invariably accompanied by massive increases in government debt."

Actually that's more or less what we said three years ago.

Graham B on Wed 03, February 2010 @ 10:37

Graham B — 2010-02-03 10:37:33

And Rogoff has called this recession a "garden-variety" financial crisis and not untypical of previous financial crises, though this one has of course been global and severe. Callinicos seems to be a bit off message here, I thought it was a crisis of long-term stagnating profitability...

Karl on Thu 04, February 2010 @ 15:45

Karl — 2010-02-04 15:45:19

Surely to claim the 'recession is over' is to be too econometric.

The attack on workers and impositions placed on the Greeks for example should tell us that the affects of the crisis are far from over.

In fact now is when the battle begins. Time to sharpen our swords not rejoice at the 'end of the recession'.

bill j on Thu 04, February 2010 @ 18:04

bill j — 2010-02-04 18:04:51

I'm not sure where rejoicing comes in. The recession is over that is just true. But it doesn't mean that the consequences of the recession are over, high unemployment, attacks on the public services etc.

Karl on Thu 04, February 2010 @ 18:58

Karl — 2010-02-04 18:58:10

Not that I want to take over editorship of PR but a better title would have been “The recession is over: Now the battle begins!” Any tabloid editor knows the importance of headlines.

And under the sub section What now? How about preparing to do battle with the ruling class against the onslaught against workers. Instead of all the guff about boom in China.

bill j on Thu 04, February 2010 @ 22:58

bill j — 2010-02-04 22:58:49

Personally I'm not catholic so I don't feel the need to cross myself. You could have the recession is on - the battle begins - or the recession is over - the battle begins. The battle is always beginning for some people. Will we ever get to the middle of the battle let alone the end? The point is the nature of the battle is effected by the recession continuing or not. That's why there's all the guff about a boom in China. There is after all a boom in China. Its not the beginning of a boom in China. Or even the middle. Or the end.

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