The Crisis of Zimbabwe (PR4) Spring 07

The world took notice when the leaders of Zimbawe’s opposition stumbled beaten and bloodied onto the court steps in Harare in March. Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) received most attention as the leader of the opposition to President Mugabe’s increasingly dictatorial rule. The leaders of the MDC were arrested for trying to attend a “prayer meeting”, their right to demonstrate having been denied.

The latest crisis and crackdown on the opposition was partly the result of growing divisions within the Zanu-PF ruling party. Mugabe had sought to prolong his presidential term by two years to 2010 and had been blocked by rivals in the Zanu-PF leading committee.  Such is the economic crisis in Zimbabwe that even Mugabe’s former allies are deserting him. Opposition centred around Emmerson Mnangagwa, a former state security minister, and the Vice President Joice Mujuru, wife of a former army chief and Mugabe crony who made millions from the seizure of white owned farms.

Scenting that the Mugabe regime could fall with one last push, the major imperialist powers, who have been imposing increasingly rigorous economic sanctions against Zimbabwe, pulled out all the stops to try to oust him. Encouraging the opposition onto the streets, pressurising the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to issue an ultimatum to Mugabe at its March meeting, publicising the repression and torture across the world’s media, the effort was in vain. The SADC issued only friendly words and the Zanu-PF leadership endorsed the 83 year old Mugabe as their candidate for another six year term in the 2008 presidential elections.

But this clearly isn’t the end of the story. The Zimbabwean economy is in freefall – estimates suggest it has shrunk by almost 40% since the late 1990s. It has the highest inflation rate in the world, currently running at 1,700% and predicted to rise to 5,000% by the end of the year if the government keeps printing money. Unemployment is running at 80%, there is massive poverty and life expectancy is the lowest in the world at only 37 for men and 34 for women, down from 60 in 1990. The UN estimates that between 18-20% of 15-54 year olds are infected with HIV with little hope of treatment. Not surprisingly, millions of Zimbabweans have fled the country, mainly to South Africa, as economic refugees and to escape repression.

The divisions in the Zanu-PF ruling party are a reflection of the deepening crisis. Even Mugabe loyalists recognise that things cannot go on as they are. The crisis is biting deep into the party’s support. Even the police are deserting because of low pay and “security personnel” are now being shipped in from Angola to prop up the regime. But the problem is how to remove the ever more authoritarian president who has been increasing his grip on power and over the party.

The major imperialist powers in the region, the USA and Britain, want a solution that protects their interests. They have been manoeuvring for some sort of transitional regime without Mugabe – ideally made up of dissidents within Zanu-PF and the MDC. Economic benefits are being held out – the lifting of sanctions, new loans, IMF and World Bank aid – and of course an amnesty for all the crimes committed by these Zanu leaders when they were in government. This is why they have been stepping up pressure on Thabo Mbeki of South Africa to come on board and help oust Mugabe.

Their problem is that South Africa is a minor imperialism that has its own interests to look after in southern Africa. Since the crisis really began to take hold at the turn of the century South African multinationals have been buying up major areas of the Zimbabwean economy at bargain basement prices. Twenty-seven of South Africa’s biggest listed companies now have operations in the country. The mining sector – platinum and diamonds – has been a recent target. Following the decline of commercial agriculture this is now the biggest area of Zimbabwe’s economy and its most important foreign currency earner.

Of course there will come a time when the general collapse of the country’s economy will begin to affect these investments, and South Africa is pressing for bilateral guarantees from Mugabe that its interests will be exempt from threatened nationalisation proposals – threats no doubt designed as a warning to South Africa not to threaten Mugabe’s position. China is also playing an important role in propping up the regime and it too is busily buying into the mining sector.

But what about the internal opposition led by the MDC? Does it hold out any hope for the suffering masses of Zimbabwe? Unfortunately the record of the MDC gives no hope that it can offer a progressive solution to the crisis. It is certainly dramatically weaker now than it was in 2000. Then it had just emerged out of the mass trade union struggles against Mugabe in the late nineties. This was led by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), of which Morgan Tsvangirai was General Secretary.

In the 2000 parliamentary elections the MDC won 57 of the 120 seats in parliament and this despite large scale vote rigging. Instead of launching a mass disobedience campaign of strikes and demonstrations against the stolen elections, the MDC played the parliamentary game and watched as Mugabe used the presidency to produce an ever more rigged and repressive governmental system. The MDC’s answer was to turn right, joining up with the big white farmers and seeking support from imperialism on the basis of a neoliberal programme of free market reforms. Little wonder that its support has dwindled in subsequent elections, its supporters have become demoralised and it has suffered a debilitating split over its decision to boycott the 2004 elections resulting in two “MDCs”.

The March governmental crisis saw the Tsvangirai wing of the MDC attempting to reassert its position as a major opposition force. Following the arrests and beating of the MDC leadership, a two day general strike was called by the ZCTU in April. Again during the build-up to this strike there was mass repression with beatings and kidnappings of TU organisers and journalists. At least two were killed and others disappeared. The intimidation combined with the desperate economic situation led to only a partial response to the strike call – in a country where only 20% are employed and desperate to hang onto their jobs this is not surprising. It is also the case that many of the most active sectors of the working class are already in exile – trying to earn a living to send money back to their families.

There is no doubt Mugabe’s days are numbered. No government can survive such a desperate collapse in its economy for a prolonged period. The regime will fall probably because of a split in its inner circle, perhaps because of a popular explosion of anger, or a combination of both. The imperialists will desperately try to ensure a smooth transition, keeping on many of Mugabe’s blood soaked allies and trying to bring in the MDC.

The workers and small farmers of Zimbabwe, inside and outside the country, have every interest in disrupting such a transition and demanding that the murderers and torturers who have ruled Zimbabwe for the last two decades are brought to justice.

Jason Travis

Thu 12, July 2007 @ 22:18